Under the Tinubu administration, Nigeria’s foreign policy faces a mix of challenges and opportunities. From diplomatic reforms to regional stability, this article examines four actionable strategies to reposition Nigeria as a leader in Africa and a key player on the global stage.
Nigeria is currently at an important juncture in its political and economic history. With an estimated population of over 200 million, it stands as the most populous African nation, doubling as its largest democracy. Since independence in 1960, Nigeria has been positioned and near-destined to have a consequential effect in its affairs which would ripple through the entire African continent. Simply put, Nigeria is too big to ignore, in the African discourse. Foreign Policy is the conduct of a state’s affairs abroad, essentially how a nation plans to affect friendly relations among nations.
With the Bola Tinubu Presidency now past its first anniversary, there are pertinent issues on diplomacy and foreign policy do not seem to have been given much-needed priority. While the appointment of Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar, the former Nigerian Ambassador to Germany, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, is a much welcome development, the usual delay in the appointment of ambassadors with their respective portfolios dampened any potential buzz as to the foreign policy direction of the Bola Tinubu Presidency.
Nevertheless, attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is a core part of the Bola Tinubu Presidency especially as the government seeks to encourage the growth of the non-oil sectors and provide much-needed infrastructure in the construction and petroleum sectors. Priority must be given to a total rebranding of Nigeria’s foreign affairs if there would be any feasible hope of making headway through investments. A rebrand of foreign policy would reposition Nigeria as the country of choice for investments in Sub-Saharan Africa, create new alliances and trading partners, boost the nation’s image in Africa and beyond, and finally, gain some bonus points by increasing the strength of the Nigerian Passport.
Nigeria had previously boasted of competent leaders and career diplomats who filled the ranks in the foreign ministry and also in international organisations. Names such as Jaja Wachukwu, (Former Nigerian Ambassador to the United Nations and Nigeria’s first foreign minister), Chief Emeka Anyaoku (Former Secretary of the Commonwealth of Nations), Dr Uzoma Emenike, a career diplomat and author, who has served as the Former Ambassador to Iceland, Ireland and currently serves as the first Nigerian female ambassador to the United States, and Ngozi Okonjo Iweala former finance and foreign minister, and Current DG of the World Trade Organization to mention a few.
This essay will focus on five key strategies necessary for an effective foreign policy in line with Nigeria’s current political and economic realities.
Strategy One: Round Pegs in Round Holes - Appointment of Ambassadors Must Favour Career Diplomats as A Matter of Priority, Over Rewarding Political Alliances.
With the tide of global politics changing, it is evident that key outposts would cover the United States, China, The United Kingdom and the United Nations. Additionally, to bolster the international image there is a growing need to increase the number of diplomatic outposts; to forge new alliances. The United States and China are the global superpowers not just out of military and economic might, but because of their sheer reach globally. The US and China are the two nations in the world with the most diplomatic representation, with a whopping 273 diplomatic representations for the US and 276 diplomatic representations for China (including embassies, consulates etc)
However, to simply encourage the Bola Tinubu Presidency to open up more embassies globally without the attendant qualified personnel to take charge would be counter-intuitive, to say the least. The appointment of ambassadors must be given serious thought, and must consist of a meritocracy-based rigorous selection process, a shared responsibility based on the foreign minister’s recommendation, the National Assembly’s vetting and the Presidential seal of approval.
Diplomatic experience must be among the top criteria for appointing ambassadors, not the rewarding of political alliances or allies. A diplomat tasked with representing the nation abroad must have the necessary background and training to equip them with the necessary tools for success- negotiation, tact, language skills, critical thinking, with a commanding knowledge of geography, history, and global affairs are the barest minimum. Consequently, this role might not necessarily be well suited for a career politician, with minimal exposure to multilateral engagements and little diplomatic training. While a cautious approach should be taken in opening new diplomatic missions in other countries, the guiding principle should be the type of relationship which Nigeria seeks to build with the host nation. For example, due to limited resources amongst other considerations, Nigeria currently maintains only one embassy for the whole of Scandinavia (The nations of Denmark, Sweden and Norway), located in Stockholm, Sweden.
The embassy serves as a central location for diplomatic duties with other Scandinavian/Nordic neighbours – Norway, Finland and Denmark. Opening an embassy in these three nations would signal an intention to streamline bilateral duties and possibly collaborate through trade or meaningful exchange programs. The numbers are currently poor with diplomatic representation as there are only twenty-four (24) Nigerian diplomatic representations across Europe. A change is needed in ambassadorial appointments, however, this would only yield positive fruits when we have round pegs in round holes representing our interests in these nations.
Strategy Two: ECOWAS As a Catalyst for Regional Peace and Stability to Support Failing Democracies in West Africa:
If a policy report were written on the state of democracy in West Africa in the past four years alone, it would show an almost endless domino effect of coups and counter-coups. The nations of Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, and Burkina-Faso have all experienced coups in West Africa since 2020. Trends in keeping with this dilemma have already taken a foothold in the Central African nation of Gabon.
The Bola Tinubu Presidency is presented with a unique opportunity. Following the election during the committee of head of states meeting of ECOWAS in October 2023, President Bola Tinubu was elected as the Chair of the regional economic bloc. With the recent coup in Niger on November 2023, ousting the elected President Bazoum, ECOWAS threatened the use of force and military intervention issuing an ultimatum for the subsequent release of the captured President Bazoum. This ultimatum ultimately ignored by the Nigerien military Junta has in simple terms worsened relations between Nigeria, Niger and the ECOWAS bloc. It has pushed the Nigerien Junta farther away from the negotiation table and in retaliation, the Nigerien Junta has instituted a “No-fly” zone on aircraft from Nigeria. Burkina-Faso, Niger and Mali, abruptly left ECOWAS issuing a communique on the reason for this decision, which served as a backdrop for signing a military pact with the objective of collective security in case of armed hostilities between ECOWAS and any of the signatories to the pact.
With all this tension, the puzzling question would be, where does the opportunity in all this chaos lie? The events in Niger, Mali and Burkina-Faso need more of a “carrot than a stick” approach. It would be a mistake to adopt the peacekeeping strategies which saw success in the mid and late nineties in Sierra Leone and Liberia. The Bola Tinubu Presidency wielding the mantle of regional leadership in ECOWAS must adopt tact and diplomacy. ECOWAS must seek consensus amongst its member states to return the nations of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso to the negotiation table with a progressive and realistic date for the gradual return of democracy in these nations.
A tiered structure with incentives and rewards would dissuade tensions and keep hostilities at a bare minimum. Sanctions while attempting to impose conform obedience should only be used as a last resort. This is because sanctions when not carefully imposed do more harm than good, increasing poverty amongst the populace, and destabilizing the economy without achieving the desired outcome. This would be counter-intuitive. However, a more targeted sanctions regime including travel bans on the junta and their leaders, and freezing of international bank accounts, in this unique case, all three nations are landlocked nations and limiting their access to sea through increased tariffs etc. could help put the necessary but specific pressure on the leaders of the junta. In combination with a tiered structure of reward and incentives, this approach would encourage dialogue while showing a roadmap workable to the return of democracy- with the highest tier level being the conduct of credible elections and the eventual swearing-in of new leaders.
Strategy Three: Exploration of New Alliances & Relations: BRICS+ & a Strengthened G20-Nigeria Partnership:
BRICS: BRICS is poised as the polar counterbalance to the Group of 7. The nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have positioned themselves to be the voice of the global south, demanding economic and political equality in relations between member states. In January 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were all admitted as new members of BRICS. This presents a unique opportunity for Nigeria. The foreign minister, Amb. Yusuf Maitama Tuggar has declared Nigeria’s interest in joining the organization in a March 2024 visit to Russia to meet with Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart. The Nigerian economy is in dire straits.
The 2024 IMF projections on Africa’s economy show that the nation has lost its place as Africa’s largest economy to South Africa, sliding down to a remarkable fourth place behind Morocco, Egypt, and South Africa. This makes it hard to make any case for attracting foreign investors especially as there is a concerted effort for the diversification of Nigeria’s economy away from oil and gas exports.
BRICS could be an economic lever for Nigeria should she become a member. One of the key priorities of the Bola Tinubu Administration is the attraction of foreign direct investment alongside investment in infrastructure for an economy hit with double-figure inflation. A BRICS membership could present a new opportunity and platform for new economic partnerships for Nigeria. Multilateralism would open doors to a synergy with other nations on projects and infrastructure; doors which would have been more difficult to access in bilateral relations due to more stringent preconditions.
There is potential for African nations to play a leading role in BRICS affairs, especially with South Africa as a key founding member and the admission of other regional powerhouses into the organization. With the new possibilities in trade and economic alliances BRICS could offer, the Tinubu Administration must consider and evaluate the long-term mutual benefits of membership.
Strengthened Partnership between Nigeria and The Group of 20. (G20): Globally renowned economist, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs has referred to the G7 as unrepresentative of today’s global economy following the group’s Cornwall Summit in 2021. In his essay, We Don’t Need the G7, Sachs highlights that in 1980, the G7 members made up about 51% of the world GDP whereas the developing countries of Asia accounted for just 8.8%. These numbers are quite different today. The point is that this is not 1980 anymore. As of 2021, the G7 countries produce a mere 31% of global GDP while the previously developing nation of Asia makes up nearly 33% of global GDP.
The current setting of the G-20 harbors large developing nations including China, India and Indonesia seeking to balance the interests of developing and high-income nations. Now with the confirmation of the African Union, an African seat at the G-20 table shows an intention of the G-20 to engage positively with the continent. In a May 2024 visit of the foreign minister, Yusuf Tuggar to the United States, in an interview with MSNBC, the foreign minister discussed Nigeria’s aspirations for a permanent membership of the G-20, highlighting Nigeria’s regional historic importance in West Africa and the African continent. Unfortunately, such narratives were hedged on a Nigeria that no longer exists- a far cry from the ECOMOG-peacekeeping, and Anti-Apartheid foreign policy objectives of the late 1980’s to the late 1990s. A claim to global importance on account of Nigeria’s historical continental leadership is still shaky. Something buoyed by demographics and not economics.
A potential G-20 membership not hinged on the AU Chair at the table would prove a difficult task. Like a kid asking to go outside to play without doing their homework. The membership of the G-20 could be said to be hinged on the keywords, “Major Economies”. There must be a national emergency which must be called by the administration to address the dual dilemmas of economic rebuilding and security before any thought can be given to a potential G-20 membership if necessary. A transparent roadmap with rigorous evaluation translates to certainty for investors that the right team is at the economic wheel of the nation.
Strategy Four: Progressive Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement:
The Nigerian passport is ranked 86th globally on passport power rank and 48th in Africa. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is a continental framework aimed at creating a single African market for the free movement of goods and people and eliminating tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade.
While there has been incremental progress in stage one of the AfCFTA implementation, the macro score sheet for continental-wide implementation is still very low. The reasons for this are not identical however they show the lack of infrastructural capacity and gap in the African payments system. Nigeria can play a leading role in two major areas:
Finance (Payments Platforms): The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) was launched in 2023 to simplify intra-African payments for goods and services. Pioneered by the Africa Import Export Bank (Afrexim Bank), the system is a -platform where African customers patronising businesses in Africa can pay for transactions either for goods or services in their local currency, with the seller receiving the market rate local equivalent of the amount paid. The use of the system is tied to traditional banks across Africa and depending on the country where PAPPS is available, it can be used either by a mobile phone or a walk-in to the bank. This is an exciting development although as of March 2024, PAPPS is only available in seven African countries (including Nigeria).
Due to the size and presence of Nigerian Banks across Africa the PAPSS system has been made available through these institutions, the Tinubu Administration can encourage the widespread adaptation of PAPPS in countries where Nigerian Banks have a strong hold by incentivising the initiative either through tax rebates or by offering financial subsidies or grants to banks for the initial integration costs with PAPSS.
Transport Systems: Goods and people can only move freely where there are good road and rail networks, as they are usually the most affordable means of transportation within the continent. The Trans-Saharan highway runs from Algiers, Algeria, to Lagos, Nigeria connecting six countries across North and West Africa. It is a laudable yet uncompleted project as at June 2024. The AfCFTA implementation could be catalysed by the ensuing economic regional integration that would be birthed from the completion of the highway.
The Tinubu Administration should seek to foster regional collaboration for the project’s competition working closely with partner countries (Niger, Chad, Mali, Tunisia and Algeria) to coordinate investments and infrastructure efforts. Financing opportunities should be given to international and local partners to come and fund specific phases of the project or international development assistance can be procured either through the World Bank or other willing development finance organizations.
Conclusion
In his MSNBC interview, the foreign minister, Yusuf Tuggar discussed the new “4D Policy”, a comprehensive approach which outlines Nigeria's priorities in global engagements under the Tinubu Presidency—the four D’s compromises of Democracy, Demography, Development and Diaspora. With a shrinking economy and the exodus of oil majors and other companies, there is a lot of work to be done to re-invent Nigeria’s image internationally. Time will tell.
However, there must be a concerted effort to do the basic things right, starting from low-hanging fruits and pursuing long-term economic goals with a proven trickle-down effect. Nigeria’s economic and diplomatic success would have positive outcomes for the West African Sub-region and the continent at large. While Nigeria looks to exert its influence and achieve its foreign policy objectives, we must review unique models on the continent in line with democracy and development, adapting with context and preparing for the next important decades for the African continent.
Author
Daberechi Ogbuishi / Policy Analyst / Contact